📉 The Maturity Wall Is Here

According to industry data, more than $1.5 trillion in commercial real estate debt is set to mature by the end of 2026—with a large chunk coming due within the next 12 months.

These loans were often originated at:

• Low interest rates (3–5%)

• High valuations

• With the expectation of easy refinance options

Fast forward to today: Interest rates have more than doubled, valuations have compressed, and lenders have tightened underwriting standards. The result? Many of these loans can’t be refinanced under current conditions.

⚠️ What’s Driving the Default Risk?

1. Higher Interest Rates

A 4% loan in 2020 is now refinancing into an 8%+ environment—if capital is even available. That change alone can double debt service payments, crushing cash flow and DSCR.

2. Falling Property Values

Office and retail properties in particular have seen 20–40% declines in value in many markets. That puts borrowers underwater and makes refinancing at today’s LTV standards impossible.

3. Reduced Lending Appetite

Banks and institutional lenders are pulling back, increasing reserves, and shying away from certain asset classes. Borrowers with expiring loans are often met with declines, delays, or low leverage offers.

4. COVID-Era Overhang

Properties that were propped up by COVID-related forbearance, PPP funds, or temporary occupancy gains are now facing reality. Office vacancies remain stubbornly high, and retail foot traffic hasn't fully recovered in many areas.

🔍 Who’s Most at Risk?

• Office buildings in urban cores with high vacancy

• Retail centers in areas with changing demographics

• Multifamily assets with thin margins or rent control

• Construction loans with incomplete projects and stalled takeouts

• Short-term bridge loans made during 2021–2022 with optimistic assumptions

💡 So, What Happens Now?

We’re already seeing signs of distress:

• Delinquencies on commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) are rising

• Loan extensions are being denied as performance slips

• Distressed asset sales and discounted note purchases are quietly picking up

Some borrowers will find rescue capital. Others will default. Many will hand back the keys.

✅ Where the Opportunity Lies

While this environment is painful for overleveraged borrowers, it opens the door for private lenders, opportunistic investors, and note buyers.

I’m already helping borrowers:

• Refinance maturing debt with short-term bridge loans

• Rescue performing assets from default

• Acquire discounted notes or REO from struggling lenders

• Provide capital where traditional lenders are backing away

We focus on low leverage, real equity, and executable exit strategies—the fundamentals that still matter.

🔑 Facing a Maturing Loan? Don’t Wait Until It’s Too Late.

If you have a loan maturing in the next 6–12 months and refinancing looks tough, don’t wait until default is your only option.

Kevin Green specializes in private, fast, asset-based lending—including rescue capital, discounted payoffs, and transitional financing.

📞 Call Kevin Green today to discuss your options before the loan comes due.📩 Kevin@rykercapital.com 415-793-3403 DRE#01241542